Dr Jim Bown
Lecturer in Complex Systems
E: j.bown@abertay.ac.uk
T: 01382 308471
General Information
Complexity is both pervasive in natural and man-made systems and difficult to define. Broadly, a complex system comprises very large numbers of relatively simple individual units that interact in space over time. That individual-scale interaction may generate community-scale phenomena that could not have been predicted from the properties defining the individuals alone. I am interested in the use of computational modelling to link these scales generally, with a particular focus in ecology and healthcare.
One of the major challenges in ecology is linking function measurable at the scale of the individual, for example time to reproduction, to patterns emergent at the scale of the community, for example coexistence of different species. Individual-based modelling offers a mechanism to link across scales and we have developed a generic theoretical framework to describe such complex systems. Individuals are defined in terms of their behaviour, or traits. These individuals are located spatially and temporally within an environment and interactions are mediated through this environment. This framework has been successfully applied to plant ecosystem dynamics and fungal colony growth.
This modelling approach can be used for predictive modelling, i.e. what happens to the system if we have this set of individuals (input parameters). However, stakeholders of a system often want the reverse of this questions, i.e. if we want this to happen, what set of individuals do we need to have. These ‘if … what’ questions are much harder to answer than the ‘what if …’ questions. To allow us to answer ‘if … what’ questions we apply artificial intelligence techniques to search the set of all possible individuals to find the set(s) of input parameters, i.e. individuals, consistent with the specified model output, i.e. system behaviour. We can use expert knowledge to reduce the size of the search.
Recently we have applied these approaches to healthcare systems. we are modelling the spread of MRSA and other hospital acquired infections in both single wards and across multiple wards. The individuals are carers and patients within a ward. As with our ecosystem modelling, individuals are characterised in terms of behaviour interact in a spatially structured environment. Second, we are developing a computational model of operating theatre utilisation, to predict the likelihood of overruns and under-runs of operating schedules and using the model to understand where the system inefficiencies are. In both cases, we are linking into key study wards that have the necessary patient and carer data that we need.
Recent consulting and professional activities
- Royal Academy of Science and Engineering Industrial Secondee, with NHS Tayside on Optimising Operating Theatre Usage.
- Institutional Contact for the working group of the Quality Assurance Audit Scottish Office on “Research-Teaching Linkages”, www.enhancementthemes.ac.uk.
- Modelling consultant for the UK Farm Scale Evaluation of Genetically Modified Crops
Grantsmanship
- 2006 Modelling the spread of Hospital Acquired Infections, Knowledge Transfer Partnership, DTI with ESRC, £250K
- 2006 Visualising Complex Data Sets: an Integrated Haptic and Audio-Visual Methodology. Principal investigator. PhD Studentship, £50K
- 2006 Police dilemmas of interpretation and action Co-investigator. PhD Studentship, £50K
- 2006 Emotional avatars in digital animation Co-investigator. PhD Studentship, £50K 2006 Integrating Games-Based Learning and Computational Modelling to Control MRSA. EPSRC Proof of Principle Award. Principal investigator. £15K
- 2006 Towards an intelligent agent for introductory programming support. Carnegie Trust Large Grant. Principal investigator. £30K
- 2006 Animating the .NET execution model: An application in image processing. Higher Education Academy / Microsoft. Co-investigator. £5K
- 2005 Statistical analysis of data from molecular diagnostic kit external quality assurance programmes, Knowledge Transfer Partnership, DTI. £100K
- 2002 Shapes in trait space: a bi-modal search algorithm to identify trait trade-offs supporting biodiversity, EPSRC Fast-Stream. Principal investigator. £40K
- 2001 Modelling the effects on farmland food webs of herbicide and insecticide management in the agricultural ecosystem, DEFRA. Co-investigator. £160K
- 2000 A generic trait-based approach for predicting the consequences of regional-scale geneflow, BBSRC/ NERC. Co-investigator. £450K
Published Papers
2007:
- Bown, J. L., Pachepsky, E., Eberst, A., Bausenwein, U., Millard, P., Squire, G. and Crawford, J. W. Consequences of intraspecific variation for the structure and function of ecological communities Part 1: Model development and predicted patterns of diversity. Ecological Modelling (in press).
- Pachepsky, E., Bown, J. L., Eberst, A., Bausenwein, U., Millard, P., Squire, G. and Crawford, J. W. Consequences of intraspecific variation for the structure and function of ecological communities Part 2: Linking diversity and function. Ecological Modelling (in press).
- Falconer, R.E., Bown, J.L., White, N.A. and Crawford, J.W. Biomass Recycling: a key to efficient foraging by fungal colonies. Oikos (in press).
2006:
- Clyde, R.G., Bown, J.L., Hupp, T., Zhelev, N. and Crawford, J.W., 2006. The Role of Modelling in Identifying Drug Targets for Diseases of the Cell Cycle. J. Roy Soc Interface, 3(10), pp. 617-627.
2005:
- Falconer, R.E., Bown, J.L., White, N.A., Crawford, J.W., 2005. Biomass recycling and the origin of phenotype in fungal mycelia. Proc Roy Soc B. 272, 1727-1734
2003:
- Sturrock, C. J., Ritz, K., Samson, W. B., Bown, J. L., Staines, H. J., Palfreyman, J. W., Crawford, J. W. and White, N. A. 2003. The effects of fungal inoculum arrangement (scale and context) on emergent community development in an agar model system. FEMS Microbiology Ecology, 39, 9-16.
2001:
- Pachepsky E, Crawford JW, Bown JL, Squire G., 2001. Towards a general theory of biodiversity. Nature, 410 (6831): 923-926
Pre 2000:
- Bown J.L., Sturrock C.J., Samson W.B., Staines H.J. Palfreyman J.W., White N.A., Ritz K., Crawford J.W. 1999. Evidence for emergent behaviour in the community-scale dynamics of a fungal microcosm. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B. 266, 1947-1952.
- Squire, G. R., Crawford, J. W., Ramsay, G., Thompson, C. & Bown, J. 1999 Gene flow at the landscape level. In Geneflow in agriculture: relevance for transgenic crops. 1999. BCPC Symposium Proceedings No. 72, 57-64.
- White, N. A., Sturrock, C. J., Ritz, K., Samson, W. B., Bown, J. L., Staines, H. J., Palfreyman, J. & Crawford, J. W. 1998 Interspecific fungal interactions in spatially heterogeneous systems. FEMS Microbiol. Ecol. 27, 21-32.